EMSEV Potenza (Italy) 17-21 September 2018
Based on pre-earthquake observations, some recent theoretical considerations predicts that some geophysical quantities reveal abnormal changes just prior moderate and strong earthquakes, within a defined spatial area (the so-called Dobrovolsky area) according to a Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling (LAIC) model. One of the possible pre-earthquake effects could be some climatological anomalies in the epicentral region, weeks/months before the major earthquakes. In a previous study an algorithm, called CAPRI (Climatological Analysis for PRecursors Identification), for searching of anomalies in some climatological parameters by a statistical analysis, was introduced and successfully applied to Central Italy earthquake sequences in the last 30 years. The simultaneous analysis of the climatological parameters related to the seismic sequences showed the presence of persistent contemporary anomalies in most of them. An ESA-funded project, SAFE (Swarm for Earthquake study) and an ASI-funded project, LIMADOU were dedicated to investigate the LAIC from ground to satellite. In this work most of the earthquakes considered in those projects, was analyzed in terms of climatological parameters. The analysis involves some land/atmospheric parameters collected from meteo/climate big data archive starting from a date preceding the mainshock by at least four months. The simultaneous analysis of the different climatological parameters related to the strong world earthquakes showed the presence of chronological sequence of anomalies, thus reinforcing the idea of considering such behaviour as an effective tool for an integrated system of future earthquake prediction.
Angelo De Santis, Dedalo Marchetti and Alessandro Piscini